2020-04-17 COVID-19 Update

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USA Data 🇺🇸

Here is today’s update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

  • US Confirmed Cases: 680,410 (+34,086)
  • US Recovered: 48,134
  • US Deaths: 35,365 (+4,474)
  • US Death Rate: 5.2%

Bad News: The number of new daily deaths reached a record high. The overall US death rate rose again to 5.2%. The total number of deaths in the US exceeded 35,000. The number of new daily confirmed cases exceeded 30,000 for the seventh time – the highest increase of the past five days. The number of daily new deaths exceeded 4,000.

Right now, the number of new daily deaths is doubling twice as quickly as the rate of new confirmed cases. The current doubling period for deaths is about the same as the doubling period for new cases was eight days ago. This probably represents a lag between the deceleration of new cases and a corresponding deceleration in deaths. Note that the number of new daily cases peaked seven days ago, and new daily deaths reached a record high today. Hopefully, today’s spike in new daily deaths represents a peak.

Good News: The seven-day moving average of the cumulative case doubling period lengthened to 31.9 days.

Based on today’s number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today’s projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

  • April 30 – 1.4 million cases
  • May 14 – 2.7 million cases
  • May 28 – 5.4 million cases
  • June 11 – 10.9 million cases

The seven-day moving average of the doubling period for deaths in the United States lengthened slightly to 7.5 days. Based on today’s cumulative number of confirmed deaths and the current doubling period, here are today’s projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

  • April 24 – 71,000 deaths
  • May 2 – 141,000 deaths
  • May 9 – 283,000 deaths
  • May 17 – 566,000 deaths

Global Data 🌍

  • Global Confirmed Cases: 2,188,194
  • Global Recovered: 269,275 (12.3%)
  • Global Deaths: 147,632
  • Global Death Rate: 6.7%

Bad News: The global death rate rose again to 6.7%. Good News: The seven-day moving average for the global confirmed case doubling period increased to 17.7 days. Based on today’s cases and the current doubling period, here are the projections for the world if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

  • May 4 – 4.4 million cases
  • May 22 – 8.8 million cases
  • June 9 – 17.5 million cases
  • June 26 – 35.0 million cases

Georgia Data 🍑

These daily updates include data and projections for the state of Georgia because that is where a large number of my family and friends live.

  • Georgia Confirmed Cases: 17,194 (+1,525)
  • Georgia Cases Currently Hospitalized: 3,324 (19.3%)
  • Georgia Deaths: 650 (+63)
  • Georgia Death Rate: 3.8%

Bad News: The number of new confirmed cases in a single day reached a record high of 1,525. The number of new daily confirmed deaths was the second-highest ever. The seven-day moving average of the doubling period for new cases in Georgia shortened to 13.8 days. Good News: There was no good news today from a statistical perspective.

Based on today’s data and the current doubling periods for confirmed cases and deaths, here are today’s projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

Georgia Confirmed Case Projections:

  • April 30 – 34,000 cases
  • May 14 – 69,000 cases
  • May 28 – 138,000 cases
  • June 11 – 275,000 cases

Georgia Death Projections:

  • May 5 – 1,300 deaths
  • May 23 – 2,600 deaths
  • June 10 – 5,200 deaths
  • June 28 – 10,400 deaths

Positive and Useful News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive or constructive news related to this disease. Here are today’s links:

Treatments, Testing, and Vaccines

Masks, Ventilators, and Other Protective Equipment

Other News of Interest

Data Sources

 

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